BACKGROUND AND AIM: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Precise survival estimates and identification of mortality risk factors are crucial for managing COPD. This prospective study aimed to investigate the survival rate and identify predictors of mortality in patients with COPD.


METHODS: We investigated the association of various factors with three-year survival rates in our COPD cohort. Patients (n=176) underwent baseline assessments including demographics, comorbidities, questionnaires, laboratory findings, and long-term oxygen therapy/bilevel positive airway pressure (LTOT/BPAP) use. The primary endpoint was completion of three-year follow-up, and the secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to explore factors associated with mortality. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method.


RESULTS: This prospective cohort study of 176 COPD patients (65.4 years old, mostly male) identified a three-year overall survival rate of 86.4%. Age ≥68.5 years (p<0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores ≥4.5 (p<0.001), and eosinophil counts ≤45 cells/μL (p<0.001) were independently associated with poorer survival. LTOT use (p=0.001) was also associated with reduced survival.


CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort study, age, CCI, LTOT use, and baseline eosinophil count were associated with survival and identified as predictors of mortality. An age cut-off of ≥68.5 years and a CCI cut-off score of ≥4.5 were associated with increased mortality risk, while lower baseline eosinophil counts (cells/μL) predicted poorer survival in this COPD cohort.